I believe the original goal of AI was to help the stupid and ignorant get access to summary data from authoritative published information. Yet because AI has no sense of reality (fact from fiction) or ethics (right from wrong) we instead get stories told by morons (AI is a moron) to morons. Eg I asked a question and got another answer ...
Friday, 1 November 2024
Everything wrong with Ai in one post
Tuesday, 20 August 2024
understanding INR range and variation using statistics
I've been working with managing my INR for some 14 years now (so, not really long), but as well I've helped a few others along the path of being able to self manage. This has been not only helpful for them, but a great learning experience for me too. One of the things I've had to do is teach an understanding of how to use basic statistics to help understand things. Things like the data we have about our INR. Lets look at this set of data, remember, these are daily measurements:
This person was just starting their warfarin therapy and we were working out the optimal dose required for them. We had to make some adjustments but we ended up on 9.5mg daily. You can see from the above that there are some ups and downs;
- for the most part we've been at or above 2
- we've kept times above 3 small (being even as high as 4 isn't really significant)
I'm pretty sure most people are comfortable with average, but alone, average isn't helpful, you need its good mate the Standard Deviation. Lets go with an example: You know that the average height of 16 year old boys is 173.5cm. You have a boy from a class who's 185cm. So the question is "is he very tall or not really unexpectedly so"?
Intuitively we know that the answer is no, because we have experience with children. But if we also find out that the standard deviation is 7.4cm we know that anything between 166.1cm and 180.9cm is a totally expectable result. We know this because that is what Standard Deviation (SD) is designed to measure. Below is a curve which is called a "Normal Distribution", people who have been working in statistics for years know this curve well.
It shows us that 68.2% of people (in this case, but its also more generally "of measurements") will fit between -1 SD and +1 SD (we use the lower case for Greek symbol sigma σ to represent SD which you'll see on the bottom axis of that graph of the Normal Curve).
So just like we know that most boys age 16 are between 166.1cm and 180.9cm we can use the SD to work out how much variation that person has from "the population". The SD for the data in that bar chart above is 0.41, which means that any variation we see where the INR is between 2.16 and 2.98 is entirely normal for this person. Note: we don't know about you because we don't have your data.
Next, looking at this we can see that quite a portion (about a quarter of all measurements) fall within 2 SD either side of the average (or μ) which means INR readings of 1.75 through to 3.39 are to be expected, but just not often. Also 1.34 through to 3.8 may come up (however rarely) and this would be statistically rare, but not impossible.
So how does this help us manage our INR?
It helps to know that if your regularly and reliably taking your regular dose and if you're regularly seeing your INR within 1SD of the average then you shouldn't really make any changes in your dose. Keep your dose consistent and you can then rely on the statistics to understand what is normal for you.
Looking back at the graph of INR we also see something else ... from measurement to measurement we typically don't see that much change. Sure there are a couple where "day to day" we saw substantial on the 1st of August where INR fell from 3.3, through 2.7 (next day) down to 2.3. This was the result of some changes; dose was dropped to 8.5 and it fell fairly quickly but as you see didn't drop below 2.1. The INR then ranged back towards the average within a week.
The approach we should have taken was "keep a steady hand on the tiller" combined with waiting for a few more readings. However ...
As a good (budding) statistician, if you do see a reading which is outside of the 1SD range and you know that nothing has changed (no new foods, no binging on grapefruit, no binging on greens) then you should expect it to gradually change back towards the average. Unless something has changed and you don't know it. If it stays higher then you know "something has changed" and investigation is warranted into what.
So, please do make friends with both average and SD, incorporate that into your spreadsheet as well as using regular weekly measurements. Occasional mid week samples "just to know" are also often helpful, but as you can see from both the historical experience behind Average and SD, combined with regular dose and weekly readings you can be in INR range in the high 80% of the time.
To get into the 90's you just need a few more strategies ... but that's for another post.
Best Wishes
Sunday, 11 August 2024
The Case evolution of early Seiko Divers
Now, this is undertaken with "homage" watches, but I've seen quite an amount of comparisons between the "homage" and the original to be satisfied that they are pretty close to the original. Indeed from what I've seen so close that even experts are satisfied and are frustrated that "Seiko didn't do this"
So, the order of release dates of these watches is this
- 62MAS
- 6105-8000
- 6105-8101
My view is that this presentation hides what's happened. This is exacerbated by most people only looking at YouTube and combined with the relative naivety of what amounts to a large fresh watch enthusiast audience (coming into watches post-COVID).
First off, I want to remind readers that none of these in the Original Seiko had a screw-down crown. The 8xxx cases had a sort of locking crown and the MAS was just relying on its o-rings to seal. This point is not insignificant in watches that will need
- reasonably frequent time setting (because they aren't quartz and so it was likely to have worse accuracy than 30 seconds per day (that's around 3.5 minutes per week)
- date needs to be reset about 6 times per year.
Shaping, sculpting and polishing is beautiful and as you can imagine results in a rather significant weight reduction.
Friday, 9 August 2024
Seestern 62MAS thoughts (and review?)
I think highly of this watch not least because of the Seiko heritage that it is paying tribute to, but because it is a very affordable, very well made watch that I can wear as a daily use watch. So this is written with something like 3 weeks of using it as an exclusive daily wear.
So I intend this to be a gloves off "nobody pays me to write" assessment of this watch.
Bottom line
Seestern have enabled enthusiasts of the 62MAS to have access to a modern version of the watch which is much closer to the original than Seiko's reissues. It does so in a way that modernises critical things (like the movement, 20mm lug width, sapphire crystal) and enables us to have affordable reliable access to a piece of history. Perfect, well except for the high polished bezel and, well the larger size of the bezel being a distraction from the watch's proportions. This is more evident with both watches in hand than even this photograph:
That aside it is indeed a good match for the MAS. Having had both in my hand at the same time I can say that I prefer the bezel and crystal of the Seiko MAS by a mile (and its not subtle).
I like the Seestern a lot but I'm probably going to go back to my Seiko SRPE as my daily wear because of the things I've discovered along the way which I'll discuss here. I may bring it out more in Summer. Unlike my Addiesdives Willard however I'm not going to be selling this watch (I have a small collection with a simple rule of: one in = one out.
Discussion
Briefly the 62MAS marks Seiko's first foray into making a watch aimed at professional and serious amateur divers. I recommend that if you haven't, you look over at my earlier blog post here, which at the very least which serves as both a good introduction to my initial thoughts. There I also give the specs and a link to Fratello Watches post on the Seiko 62MAS which I will again source a portion of an image.
The dial and the importance of the dial on a diver as being highly legible in all (and adverse) conditions. Key to reading a watch is orienting the dial so that not only is the 12 O'Clock clear but making the quarters of the dial immediately recognisable increases the accuracy of knowing where the hands point to by reducing the time to be clear about is it on the 9 or on the 10
Seiko knew that and made the markers on these positions reasonably visibly different. This is my first beef with the Seestern where they aren't. Actually as an aside my second beef with the Seestern is the visibly bigger bezel dial ring and it being that shitty shiny "make my watch look like a plastic toy" high polish ceramic. Most of the time it doesn't look black... Compare the thickness here where the font struggles to fit into the older one ... The extra thickness makes the bezel dial so much more 'present' on the watch.
- tapering the lume ever so slightly towards the inner dial
- making them smaller than the quarter markers
the taper is far too subtle and the ratio of length to width is also far too subtle. Forgive the colour temperature differences, that's down to lighting on my photograph.
Lets look at them all in better (bigger) detail
so at significant magnification the differences are clearer ... handy for the myopic who aren't wearing their glasses ... but not so much in a dive or dim lit situation.Its important to remember that this is of course a very early Dive Watch, and Seiko was still learning the best design language for Divers watches. To me this reached peak form in the 7000 series (like the SKX007) where dials and hands evolved to produce what to me is the pinnacle of diver dials. I don't have one of those, but I do have my SRPE which is very close visually to that series. A picture from my above mentioned earlier blog post shows that layout advantage clearly.
Almost instantly you can see the design cues guiding your eye to the hand positions clearly; markers are somehow less cluttered, quarters are distinguished from the others resulting in less time is needed to recognise the time) and so a quick glance is all that's needed. In terms of design language, the later watch has evolved into a clear 12, dashes on the quarters and dots between them. So at a glance you can see is the hand next to a Dash, between two Dots or between Dash Dot / Dot Dash.
So despite being almost exactly the same size of face the MAS, the Seestern ends up looking cluttered and cramped while the more modern dial looks open and clear.
For me this lack of legibility is a detraction, I wish they'd striven to make the small changes err towards being clearer (instead of less clear).
I like that that bezel on the Seestern is proud of the watch case; both in height and diameter. This makes it easy to grip and turn (as its intended to be); however this has an implication for wearing and long sleeves where it catches a lot.
Wearing the MAS
As I mentioned in the other post watch thickness is almost identical, with only the crystal protruding a bit more to make the watches differ in thickness. So the grip style on the bezel, and the fact that it stands a little proud, means that sleeves and cuffs in particular snag on it. Far less of a problem with the SRPE
or indeed a more modern Seiko diver which has usually got a shape that will allow the watch to deflect the cuffs of shirts up and over it.
(image sourced from Reddit)
Accordingly the bezel gets caught on sleeve which is annoying, so this feels like its going to be more of a summer watch to me. However I'm still wearing it a day later so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Lastly we come to the fact that now most divers (not the Seiko 62MAS, nor the Willard however) now have a screw down crown. Because its a mechanical watch its not going to be as accurate as a Quartz watch is, which means you'll probably be unscrewing that to be setting the time weekly (if we accept that its going to be something like 5 minutes a week out) or if you aren't wearing it daily every time you need to put it on. In the past my (still to this day) favourite daily diver was my Sports 100 from 1979 (which I bought in 1983 or so)
As you can see:
- its very slim
- its very light (less than 63g the Seestern was 66g)
- the bezel allows finger grip but shirt slip
Conclusions
Basically the Seestern MAS deserves to be a daily wear watch (the disrespectful will use the term "beater") because:
- its very economically priced (like not far from a Casio Duro)
- it has a robust and reliable NH35 movement in it (so, not unlike that in my SRPE
I'm very pleased to have this watch in my box and I hope that come summer it'll see more time than my SRPE does ...
I'll update this as I discover more. Update 1
Thursday, 18 July 2024
Seestern 62MAS homage
So, in pursuit of a diver (as a daily driver) and after (expectable) disappointment with the Addiesdives Willard and (unexpected) disappointment with the Rdunae 6105-8000 (failing), my next (perhaps predictable) move was to the try the homage of the Seiko 62 MAS.
It looks and feels great. The dial is a combination of beauty in the right light, but sufficiently black for high contrast in low light. It is in fact exactly what made me buy the "Dress KX" in the first place. That was a "dress watch which was a homage to the SKX diver series" but instead the Seestern is a homage to the first Professional Diver watch by Seiko which still had elements of beauty making it a single watch for all occasions. Not too big, not too small, water resistant and functional. A "tool watch" which you'd be proud to wear to a function.
For those unfamiliar with the 62MAS I suggest this good over on another site. As is typical (and sad) few dimensions of value are given and very little time is spent looking at the watch in a 3 dimensional way. I hope to rectify that here.
The 62MAS is Seiko's first watch aimed at 'professional divers' and really started their trend of "machined billet" look and feel to their watch cases. Their next move was the (not so well known) 6105-8000 which led soon to the different case of the 8110 or the Willard. The Willard is a classic example of a watch which a movie and the internet has made more famous over time. The 62MAS not so much (unfortunately).
As far as lineage goes the directions started by 62MAS eventually led to the development SKX007 and to the more modern "Dress KX" series (which I've blogged about over here) that is now the base case used on most of the modern Seiko 5's. So as I've sold my SRPE61 but still have my SRPE63 I thought I'd show that beside the 62.
So you can see that the two are very similar watches, with the SRPE showing its "dress style" bezel and diver heritage in the very SKX style case. I think at this point I can say how the evolution of the Diver Dial in "House of Seiko" has shown improvement in legibility. Somehow the SKX (style) dial (on the right) is cleaner, less cluttered and very instantly visible as than the dial on the 62MAS.
Part of this legibility of the SRPE is that the actual dial area feels that big larger, but as you can't see it's in reality not much different. I believe that the presence of the chapter ring outside the dial, but inside the bezel and lack of the "rotating bezel dial" makes the face have more presence. Moving the markers a bit further out also helps this. The use of a clear Triangle at the 12, oblongs on the quaters (well the three has the day/date) and circular pips for the other markers instantly gives recogntion of orientation and thus reading that dial in lower light (like 2am with fading lume).
Watch thickness is almost identical, with only the crystal protruding a bit more to make the watches differ in thickness.
Crown position and curves of the body show the eventual trends that we saw first on the 6105-8000 and then Willard and then SKX007. The utility of drilled lugs is great, especially if you've ever had to hammer out a rusted spring bar (because diving will do that). Further the positioning of the drill holes (hence the actual spring bar position) makes the 62MAS actually sit better. I mean who gives a fuck about "lug to lug" with relation to fitment when the place the strap pivots around is actually the important point.
The above shot also shows the relatively similar sizes and dimensions. Most of the specs for the 62MAS homage are pretty well known as they are published on the AliExpress sellers, however I may as well repeat the key points here:
Aspect | Dimension |
lug to lug | 48mm |
spring bar to spring bar | 43mm |
Case diameter | 37mm |
bezel grip diameter | 38.5mm |
Case height | 12mm |
Total thickness | 13.5mm |
weight of the watches is often (confusingly) given with a strap or a bracelet ... myself I find knowing the watch weight itself to be important, so:
As you can see the Seestern 62MAS is a tad heavier, and annoyingly getting the weight (for comparison) of the actual Seiko 62MAS is vexed.
To get a better look at the Willard and the 8000 case version please refer to my blog post here. The Seiko recreation of the 62MAS can be found here.
However this bit from my above blog post about the Willards may be helpful directly.
That also features the SRPE and so its easier to make comparisons between those watches and the 62MAS homage.
Lastly I thought a quick look around in 3D on video would help:
In lower contrast lighting the dial is sufficiently black for good contrast.
Lastly the decoration on the caseback is a very nice touch. Well done and not uncomfortable on the wrist.
So that's about it ... I'll probably look at an Rdunae again when (if?) they come back in stock (perhaps...) and will be selling the Addiesdives Willard on eBay soon.
I'd call this "itch scratched".
:-)
PS today I was in a high end second hand jewellery shop and I was shown a genuine 62MAS with an 8001 case designation. As there was a scale nearby (on the counter) I weighed it and if I recall correctly it was 66g. So I weighed my Seestern and it showed 76g; thus it was lighter than my Seestern. What's worrying is that my scale shows my Seestern to be 66.2g (and all of this is watch only, without strap. Oh and the Bezel turned both ways.
also, I have added this additional set of notes related to it and the 6105-8xxx series of watches
Tuesday, 2 July 2024
Rdunae - the progenitor of the Willard
I wanted to start this with a picture of the progenitor of the Willard, the subject of this blog post, the homage to the 8000 cased version of the Willard (which was the 8110 case around the 6105 movement). The watch is the Rdunae R2 (their site), which I bought from AliExpress.
The specs are quoted (and confirmed by me) as
Rdunae Turtle 6105-8000 Homage:
- Case width: 41mm
- Height : 13mm
- Lug to lug : 48mm
- Lug width : 19mm
As far as homages' go this is a very faithful copy and something that those of us who love Seiko belive that Seiko should have fucking done by now (you slack cunts). Its easily the second best "diver" I've owned (this being my personal favourite).
Sadly you should know right here that I've already returned it because the one I got had a fault (the automatic wind rotor was blocked by the caseback). So it would not wind automatically.
I've had Seiko watches since childhood, they've been solid performers and have been on my wrist for something like 40 years. Interestingly I've only had two Seiko watches until 2020, when I bought the Seiko SNK805 to give myself a new watch. It was my first Seiko to not come on a bracelet and has been part of my journey in learning more about watches. As it happens I'm wearing it while typing this because (with a few changes) its become my most comfortable robust watch. If I have to do work (even just typing) its my go to to wear.
So with that out of the way; I recently bought the Addiesdives "Willard" homage because I was curious and because the desire of it welled up in me after my SRPE63K2 became my daily wear. I mention the SRPE because the case heritage harks back to the Willard (not so much if at all the 8000 case) and because I have loved the movie Apocalypse Now for most of my life.
Its large obtrusive, protrusive and I'm no fan of the high polish ceramic bezel. To me it looks like cheap plastic and not as should be intended; just a more durable replacement for the anodised aluminium.
Most of which I knew when getting the watch from research. I had since come to learn that Watch KingWang (abbreviated to WW for the duration of this post) has succumbed to some medieval 'bigger is better' approach and the KW's of the world value a heavy and uncomfortable lump of metal over refined and yet robust watches.
I personally do not know what led to the direction change; from the refined and stylistic 8000 case to the brutalist nature of the 8110 case. However this Fratello Watch introduction does make that change clear in history and dates, if not the reasons for it.
Since I mentioned the SRPE series this is the progression of the bases of the watches over time
the progression from the Willard case to the modern SRPE (I'm leaving out the SKX because I don't have one) series is clear. To me the cases became more refined and the Willard is a lump of rock from which the final sculpture finally emerged. Yet interestingly there are traces of that 8000 beginning to be found in the lugs and outline shape of the SRPE.
But returning to the case development of the diver versions of the 6105 movement and that period of time ..
The stem tube is now buried beneath a large covering of metal. Clearly lug to lug is the same, but the case on the Willard is just a big fat blob of metal. In contrast the 8000 is a more sophisticated turtle shell shape.
Shaping, sculpting and polishing is beautiful and as you can imagine results in a rather significant weight reduction
wow ... it also becomes apparent that the "lugs" are not really lugs, but just bites out of the case to enable a strap to be mounted.
Also, while looking at this angle, the contrast of the anodized aluminium is much higher, and the polished ceramic comes out looking milky in a photograph (and like a kids plastic toy in real life).
The curve down to the lugs and the essentially thinner case sure helps make the watch lighter and not to be "a lump hanging off your wrist"
Worth noting in the top part of the above image is how much the 8000 case "dishes" compared the Willard. This means that it actually sits nicer over your wrist (which is also curved).
Basically it is curved to distribute its contact with the edge of the case, much better than a disc. Its also worth mentioning that the above "vintage" leather strap is a 18mm (the supplied one was actually a 20mm squeezed into the 19mm lug widths) and happens to fit beautifully into the 19mm and makes it easy to get my spring-bar tool in there.
At all angles the aluminium bezel is more legible on the Rdunae R2.
A worthy aside was the very high quality large "diver sized" holes and spring bars provided with the Rdunae
So its no surprise then that the 8000 wears much better on the wrist than the Willard. The astute will observe that the Rdunae also has "lock" on the crown, which of course it doesn't because its a plain screw-down crown ... a nice touch. I also happen to like the gold variation (not available on the Willard, but is found on some Seiko Divers.
Generally I love the Rdunae
Getting back to where I started the Rdunae had a problem with the watch mechanism rotor touching the caseback and causing it not to wind. You can see here where this binding occurred.
So basically they need to reduce the thickness of the case back wall (and may have already addressed this) to increase clearance.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Lastly I recommend the interested to have a look at this blog post about the Willard and its production history.
Bottom line:
Saturday, 18 May 2024
Got it fitted by an expert mob
I normally do things myself, but I head scratched and procrastinated with fitting the Mikuni TM-40 carby I bought to replace the standard carby (a VM34) on my SR500. This photo is of the old and the new (from my aborted attempt to mount it).
I could probably have done it, but then the prospect of tuning it made me feel like "I'll take it to an expert" ... as it happens I had heard very good things about Nippon Performance in Brisbane (Queensland Australia) from a friend who has had a few biked worked on there.
So first I'll show you some of their work:
Carb fitted
View to the pod air cleaner
They did an excellent job of (simply) fabricating a tube and a bracket to prevent cantilever stress on the manifold.
and it all fits in very snugly
Performance is fantastic, many of the niggling and annoying aspects of the old carby (probably related to diaphragms which were dodgy and unavailable) are gone and the bike is very smooth across the entire range from idle to redline. Bottom end power is better than it was before, although I'm still learning exactly the starting; but its better than before.
Some Dynos
The next best thing (although unexpected) is that it now uses less fuel by a significant margin, giving me 3.7L/100km on the way back up the mountain range from Brisbane yesterday; normally its 5.2L/100km
The complete list of "what was done" is:
- fit and tune carby
- new steering head bearing (its been in there since 1985)
- rebuild forks (seals and inner parts) use 15 weight oil (up from 10)
- new tyres and tubes
So, there you have it basically feels like a new bike!
Win Win
Sunday, 17 March 2024
Checking Timing Chain Tension on my SR500
Sometimes things go as they should, and sometimes they don't; when they don't it can be an opportunity to learn more.
I recently did an oil change and it seemed a good opportunity to check my SR500's timing chain tension. Its actually incredibly simple to do and quite accessible right there on the right hand side of the bike.
I usually call it Cam chain and my old manual does too.
So normally one just undoes the (27mm, and the standard toolkit has exactly the right spanner for this task - yeah \o/ ) cover cap (the thing visible here)
However a quick look at the cap revealed the issue:
yep, the locknut had come 'loose' from the body and simply unscrewed with the cap ... (facepalm).
It undid with just my finger.
Note carefully that O-Ring that's in the cap ... it can fall out unnoticed and must be in there when the cap is put back on ...
So, with the adjuster bare (no need to do this yourself) its a good time to talk about what we are doing.
Our goal here is to adjust that so that the inner pin is flush with the outter surface of the adnuster nut so, you need to use a 10mm spanner (also in the kit) and (probably) screw it in.
The process of determining this I used is to turn the motor over (with the ignition turned off and the decompression lever pulled in) using the kick starter by hand while looking at that (apparently a screw) in the center. You want to turn the motor over looking at it in various positions (perhaps starting from Top Dead Center, for which I just used the white mark visible through the window) as well as other places.
Here you can see its actually lower than the outer part of the nut (and I watched it during the turn over). So in my case I adjusted that in.
Screw the nut in untill the surfaces are flush (which is actually a cast piece of a longer component that looks like this):
its perhaps not clear in that where the adjuster is, but careful thinking about it will reveal it all. This is from an SR400 manual btw.
Perhaps turn it over again observing that it moves in and out a little. So then with that done just put it all back together, tighten to specified torques (or just firm but don't try to strip threads) and you're done.
Below is the advice I got from a friend before doing this (*thanks Stu)
Dead simple... all I do is
* put the engine in TDC on compression
* remove the spark plug
* take it a bit past the T mark then roll it back to the T mark again
* undo the tensioner cap (angle the cap down as you remove it to catch the oil, stick a rag under the area anyway)
* loosen the big lock nut a bit so you can adjust the 10mm centre nut
* carefully screw the centre adjuster in 'till the slotted plunger comes almost level with the end of the adjuster (it's not a screw and don't try to force the adjuster with the 10mm)
* then rotate the flywheel back and forward a bit to ensure the centre plunger moves in and out slightly
* screw the lock nut back up then holding the adjuster with a 10mm spanner lightly, tighten the big lock nut.
* Change the O ring if you feel so inclined, tighten the cap a bit then all done!
I hope this demystifies the process for any "wrenching beginners".
Best of luck with what seems harder (before you've done it) than it is.